Who was better for the stock market? Biden or Trump?
As President Joe Biden leaves the White House, the S&P 500 is up more than 55% and the Nasdaq composite is up about 46% since its inception.
Biden’s speech in 2016 2021 is the tail end of the post-Covid bull market. That includes a bear market in 2022 but a 24% and 28% bear market in the S&P 500 in 2023-’24.
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While the best performer during his tenure has been the S&P 500 index, small-cap stocks have lagged. The Russell 2000 rose less than 1%, according to Dow Jones market data. That’s the worst presidential term ever for a small-cap measure.
Best stock market performance of all time
The S&P’s rise during Biden’s presidency ranks seventh among all presidents in the past seven decades.
The best-performing major index under President Biden is the S&P 500, which has gained 55.7% through Friday, January 17. (Images in the attached table are as of January 13).
During President Donald Trump’s tenure from 2017 to 2021, the Nasdaq posted the biggest gains of any four-year presidential term in the modern stock market era, since President Dwight Eisenhower.
The Nasdaq composite is up 137.6% during Trump’s tenure, according to Dow Jones Market Data. (The Nasdaq was launched in 1971.) The S&P 500 rose 67.3 percent on Trump’s watch.
During President Barack Obama’s first term in office from 2009 to 2013, the S&P 500’s largest all-time gain of 84.4% fell short of Biden and Trump. Obama also made huge gains in the Russell 2000 over the same period. It increased by 105.9%. The Russell Index was launched in 1984.
Obama’s presidency included the bull market that followed the financial crisis.
Bill Clinton had the highest index performance of any president for the first time from 1993 to 1997, with a 110.8% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The dot com bubble was created during the last years of his second term. The Nasdaq roared 93.4% and 103.1% in its two election periods, for a total gain of 297.2%.
Stock profits between election days
Counting the four-year periods between election days for the winning candidate, Biden’s S&P 500 index is up more than 70% from Election Day 2016, compared to Trump’s 54.7%.
But Trump dominated the Nasdaq, with a strong 111% gain to Biden’s 62.9% gain. The results reversed for the Dow, with Biden’s election cycle blue chip index picking up 52.1% versus Trump’s 46.9%.
In the year In the current election cycle, which began on November 5, and with primary results through January 13, Trump’s victory led to a significant early November gain. But most of those gains evaporated in the weakness that began in December.
Follow Kimberley Koenig on X/Twitter for more stock market news. @IBD_KKoenig.
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