Trump’s second coming and the world
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Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world
What effect will the second coming of Donald Trump have on the world? The world is unknown. Trump is also unpredictable. The first president changed America and the world. Its second effect can be profound.
“Starting today,” Trump said. In his opening speech“The United States of America shall be a free, sovereign, and independent nation. They were so used to the expressions of sympathy from him and those around him that they (almost) stopped panicking. But he is talking about the most powerful country in the world, the one that pioneered one and a half hundred inventions and shaped the world we live in, the one that kept America free, sovereign, and independent. Nation? The answer, it seems, is self-imposed obligations and voluntary limitations on one’s own authority. Now, he suggests, America will do whatever it wants. The United States no longer pretends to moral leadership: it declares itself another great power with the old motto of “doing right.”
How will the world see this event? In “Alone in a Trumpian World,” European Council on Foreign Relations It recently published the results of polls around the world. They are attractive. It is the citizens of his closest allies who are most worried about Trump’s second coming. 22 percent of EU citizens, 15 percent of the UK and 11 percent of South Koreans think his return would be a good thing for their country. Meanwhile, 84 percent of Indians, 61 percent of Saudis, 49 percent of Russians and 46 percent of Chinese think it is good for their country. (See charts.)
This, according to the report, reflects “the public’s acceptance of a more commercialized world.” However, for America’s closest allies, this is the end of a bond of trust. You can now be free riders on American power. Maybe that will serve them well. But this is more than their dependence. After the war, Europeans believed in a “liberal international order.” It’s a huge disappointment for them to lose. The so-called “Global South” has largely not and is more comfortable with Trump’s marketing approach.
On two important issues — trade and the global environment — Trump’s approach poses unique challenges. In the past, it was a liberal system built around international institutions that encouraged trade freedom and provided greater stability in the trade policy environment. This was especially important for trade-based small economies. As a result, the ratio of goods trade to world output rose from 5 percent at the end of World War II to 15 percent at the end of the Cold War and 25 percent on the eve of the global financial crisis. It has since stopped.
How much will the tariff wars started by Trump hurt? Business has broken down before. Will he do that again? Trump has the idea that foreigners will pay the tariffs (one of his many follies). In fact, Americans: he is not only a bully, but also a fool. Poor Canada and Mexico. So how should victims respond? revenge, Harvard’s Danny Roderick argues.It is precious to those who receive it. So be careful.
The second important area is climate change. This, say the mega-republicans, is a lie. Therefore, Trump declared, “We will do it, baby, we will do it.” In the year 2024 According to NASAglobal temperatures are 1.28C higher than their 1951-80 baseline, the highest ever recorded. Atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ continue to rise. So, it should be “Burn, baby, burn.” This indifference to the fate of the planet can be very disastrous. And that poses a huge threat to the rest of the world.
Meanwhile, can King Donald spark America’s economic renaissance? Not because the economy he inherited is indeed far removed from the danger he constantly proclaims. Conversely, the post-pandemic US economy has outperformed its peers. In January World Economic Outlook Update“Growth is expected to be 2.7 percent in 2025,” says the IMF. That’s 0.5 percent higher than the October forecast, something other high-income economies can only dream of. Trump has Joe Biden to thank for this confession.
Given how good things are, it’s the easiest way down from here. In the short-to-medium run, a combination of continued loose fiscal policy with austerity measures, tariffs, and mass deportations of immigrants could lead to a rebound in inflation. That creates tension between the president and the Federal Reserve. This, combined with a new financial deregulation process, could trigger another financial crisis. That would cause the stock market to fall at historically high prices, one measure Trump cares about. Moreover, Trump’s fiscal deficit forecast by Congressional Budget Office This year, 6.2 percent of GDP, debt in the hands of the public is 100 percent and is increasing significantly. This is an unsustainable path. The hope seems to be that significant cost reductions will close the gap. But these are inadequate and at the expense of his political patrons. Perhaps, in his second term, he no longer cares. But of course they do.
Trump is unpredictable. Maybe it will lead to a just peace in Ukraine and the Middle East. Perhaps, he will put most of his threats and promises in the Oval Office wastepaper basket, step down and leave the country and the world for good. It seems likely that there will be serious damage to the Western alliance, world trade, the global environment, and American and international institutions. However, in this speech he declared: “My proudest legacy is peacemaking and unity. That’s what I want to be.” We all want him to be.
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