Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine before taking office. War is on.

After winning the election and entering the White House, many presidents at some point eventually break their campaign promises. Donald J. Trump won’t even wait that long. He broke an important campaign promise the moment he was sworn in.

As he scrambles to return to power in the fall, Mr. Trump has repeatedly made a sensational promise, one with profound, if implausible, geopolitical consequences: He would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. And not just within 24 hours – before being sworn in as president.

“Before I got to the Oval OfficeSoon after we win the presidential election, the brutal war between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved, Mr. Trump promised at a rally in June. “I’ll settle before I’m president.” He said during a televised debate. With Vice President Kamala Harris in September. When I am the president-elect, I will solve Russia-Ukraine He said it again during the podcast. In October.

This was not an offhand comment, not once did he repeat it. There was public debate when it came to the largest land war in Europe since the fall of Nazi Germany. But not only did he not keep his promise; They have made no serious effort to resolve the battle since being elected in November, and the fight will continue after noon Monday if President-elect Trump becomes President Trump again.

“Wars cannot be solved with bombs,” Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, said in an interview. “And the missing link in his thinking is his failure to understand that the Ukrainians will only reach a settlement if they are at the negotiating table from a position of strength. He has effectively undermined their position, and that’s one of the reasons he didn’t reach a settlement before his appointment.”

Mr. Trump is no stranger to obstinacy. The brazen assertion that he could easily, quickly and single-handedly end the war with a figurative finger shot was a long-standing I-can-fix image that Mr. Trump likes to project to the public.

But as has been the case for nearly a decade in national politics, rhetoric has turned into reality and lofty hopes have fallen by the wayside. And while other presidents have paid the price for breaking their promises (just ask George HW Bush about reading his lips on taxes), Mr. Trump plows ahead with no clear results.

For example, he did not completely build the much talked about border wall. But Mexico will force her to pay. He didn’t destroy it. Federal budget deficit or reduction National trade deficit. He said he did not create a lasting peace between Israel and the Palestinians, which was “not as difficult as people thought over the years.” It did not repeal or replace Obamacare. Economic growth has not increased. “4, 5 and even 6 percent.”

During this transition to his second term, Mr. Trump helped broker a temporary ceasefire in the Gaza war on Sunday, with Israel sending a delegation to press President Biden to get a long-standing ceasefire agreement on the table first. . While the deal was brokered by Mr. Biden’s team, Mr. Trump’s push played a key role in its eventual passage, a major victory for the incoming president.

But Ukraine is in many ways the most difficult challenge for Mr. Trump because he is starting from scratch. Unlike Gaza, where all the complex logistics, timetables and formulas have been worked out for Mr Trump to simply accept and push through the finish line, there is no peace plan from his predecessor.

Just this month, Keith Kellogg, who was appointed as the new president’s special envoy on the war in Ukraine, postponed plans until after his inauguration to visit Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, and other European cities to survey the situation. He told Fox News he was hopeful. Solving in 100 daysIt will be 100 times longer than Mr. Trump originally promised.

“It was an unrealistic expectation,” said Kathryn Stoner, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “Only Vladimir Putin can stop the war in 24 hours, but he could have done it years ago. If Trump starts the clock, any negotiation will take more than 24 hours.”

Mr. Trump’s campaign promises have always been delivered “very liberally” and perhaps more so, said Michael Kimmage, author of the book “Confrontation” about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and director of the Wilson Center’s Kenan Institute. Sending signals instead of translating them correctly.

“His intent with this language may be: to signal to the administration that his approach to Russia and the war will be different from Biden’s, that his main goal is to end the war, not to win Ukraine,” and “that he will prevail, not the deep state that will plunge the United States into perpetual wars.”

Those signs have left Mr Trump confused about how he thinks a deal will be reached, but given his long-standing closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin, his hostility to Ukraine and his opposition to US military aid to Kiev, analysts expect him to find any compromise. He wants to be suitable for Moscow. Vice President-elect JD Vance has proposed that Russia keep 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory it illegally seized and force Ukraine to accept neutrality rather than align with the West.

Asked in an email why Mr. Trump had not followed through on his promise to end the war before his inauguration, Carolyn Levitt, Mr. Trump’s incoming White House press secretary, did not directly respond, instead repeating that “it will be a matter of priority.” in his second term”.

Mr Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after his election in November and spoke about his meeting with President Putin.

Rep. Michael Waltz, Republican of Florida, who is set to become Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, said on Sunday that ending the conflict in Ukraine would be a top priority for the new president, calling the war a “literal meat grinder.” World War I trench warfare “with the consequences of the escalation of World War III.”

But Mr. Waltz expressed his thoughts at the time Appeared on “Face the Nation”. At CBS, the process that takes a while seems to be a formula: “The keys are: Number one, who are we going to bring to the table?” Number two, how do we drive them to the table? And then three, what are the frameworks of the agreement?”

“President Trump is clear: this war must stop,” Mr. Walt added. “I think everyone should be on this.”

Even if everyone is on board with that goal — and there’s room for doubt — the potential terms remain thorny. Although it thinks NATO membership is not in the cards, Ukraine wants greater security guarantees from the United States and Europe, especially if it is forced to give up its territory, something Russia opposes.

Then there are the questions of compensation and consequences. Who will pay to rebuild Ukraine’s ruined cities and countryside? What will happen to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for Mr. Putin and other suspected war criminals in Russia? Will the United States and Europe ease sanctions after the 2022 full-scale invasion, and if so, under what conditions? Who would police the civil conflict and what would happen if any ceasefire was violated?

Mr. Trump has not publicly addressed such questions, leading many to speculate. But he expressed concern over the ongoing trauma in Ukraine and the need to find answers, whatever that may be.

“Part of the point – and this may shed some light on the administration’s process – is to not have a script and to speak in vague ways rather than revealing what the actual script is,” Mr Kimmage said. The more we don’t know what he’s thinking, the more he can improve.