The copper market sees a half chance of 10% U.S. tariffs by the end of the first quarter, Goldman said in Reuters.

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs said on Monday the market expected a 10% U.S. tariff on steel to be cut by about 50% by the end of the first quarter of this year.

Analysts at the US investment bank said in a client note that their estimate of a 10% effective tariff on copper by the end of the year is the same as their own 50% realistic chance.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange eased just 0.3% to $9,167 a metric ton by 0706 GMT after hitting a one-month high last week. (Met/L)

President-elect Donald Trump will return to the White House with an inaugural address where businessmen will be scrutinized for policies on the first day. Trump has spoken of tariffs of up to 10% on international imports, as well as 60% on Chinese goods and 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods.

Goldman also noted that the oil market is pricing in a 40% chance of a 25% US tariff on Canadian products, including oil, and the bank’s 15% realistic scenario of a 25% effective tariff by the end of the year.

Futures were trading at $80.69 a barrel, while the more active U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude April contract was steady at $77.36. (o/r)

The investment bank has given a 10% chance of a 10% effective rate on gold over the next 12 months. He said the status of bullion as a financial asset has the potential to be exempt from broad tariffs.

Prices rose 0.3% to $2,708.77 an ounce, while the U.S. was little changed at $2,749.70. (goal/)

Gold inventories in COMEX-authorized warehouses rose by a third as market players sought shipments to avoid the possibility of tariffs.