How the October 7 attacks changed the Middle East

On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants launched a deadly war across the border with Israel that devastated Gaza. They also unleashed a shock wave that unexpectedly swept the Middle East.

Strong alliances are strengthened. Long established “red lines” were crossed. Decades of authoritarian rule were swept away from the heart of the region.

15 months after October’s attacks, a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is set to begin on Sunday, a look at how the region has changed.

Israel

Israel has asserted its military superiority but may face heavy diplomatic and domestic costs.

The country’s leaders view the Hamas-led violence as an existential threat and are determined to defeat Hamas and weaken its main backer, Iran. Not only has Israel succeeded in weakening Hamas in Gaza, it has also dealt a serious blow to Iran’s network of Middle Eastern allies by destroying the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah.

Closer to home, and in international public opinion, Israel’s achievements were more ambiguous. Although the attack on Gaza severely weakened Hamas, it did not destroy it, as the government was supposed to do.

Israel’s economy has been hit by the war, and the country’s polarized politics — briefly ignored when the war began — appear to have returned to their divisive nature. The country’s international standing has been damaged, threatening its diplomatic goals, such as normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia.

These changes were made during Monday’s inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump, in his first term in office, may seek to renew efforts to normalize relations between the Arab world and Israel.

In the long term, it is difficult to imagine the threat Israel will face to the young generation of Lebanese and Palestinians affected by the death and destruction of their families and homes.

Hamas

At the time of the October 7 attack, Hamas and its leader Yahya Sinwar wanted to start a wider regional war between Israel and Hamas allies. But the group could not imagine how the conflict could end.

For Palestinian civilians, the future looks bleaker than ever.

Israeli bombardment and occupation have forced nearly all Gazans from their homes and killed more than 45,000, according to Gaza health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Israel has reduced the vast enclave to ruins.

Israel has killed Mr. Sinwar and the rest of Hamas’s top military and political leaders, and the group’s popularity among Gazans has faded, although US officials estimate that Hamas has recruited as many fighters as it has lost in its more than 15-month war.

However, its remaining leaders may call its existence a triumph.

Israel says Hamas cannot control the territory after the war, but has resisted calls for a post-war plan for Gaza. Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia now say they will not normalize relations with Israel until it paves the way for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Lebanon

Hezbollah, once the crown jewel of Iran’s resistance, has loosened its grip on Lebanon. But Israel’s occupation and bombings have left Lebanon facing billions of dollars in reconstruction costs amid the economic crisis that preceded the war.

Hezbollah, Lebanon’s dominant political and military force, suffered a reversal of fortunes after the 2023 attack. Israel has killed most of its top leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah. Iran, its patron, is weakened. And the supply line through Syria is at risk. More broadly, the group’s main promise to Lebanon – that it alone could protect the country from Israel – was broken.

Years of political deadlock, largely blamed on the militant group, were resolved enough this month to allow Lebanon’s parliament to elect a new president and appoint a prime minister backed by the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Despite the blow, Hezbollah can still call on thousands of fighters, and it has the support of Lebanon’s large Shia Muslim community. He may yet find a way to rebuild Lebanon’s fragmented political system.

Syria

The fall of Bashar al-Assad last month — one of the most dramatic and unexpected results of October 7 — brought down a brutal dictator. But the inevitable chaos that followed created the conditions for a new power struggle.

For nearly 13 years, Mr al-Assad’s family has waged an insurgency against his five-decade grip on power – with help from Russia, Hezbollah and Iran.

But with Moscow focused on the war in Ukraine, and Iran and Hezbollah freed from Israeli aggression, the Turkish-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Islamists seized the opportunity. They marched through Syria and overthrew the government within days.

With Iran and Russia on the back foot, Turkey is now playing a critical role in Syria. Moscow hopes to retain some of its naval and air bases, but the fate of its negotiations with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, the United States has maintained a small military presence in Syria to fight the Islamic State group and is allied with Kurdish-led forces, which Turkey views as an enemy. And Israel has been carrying out extensive airstrikes against what it says are Syrian military and weapons targets, holding Syrian territory near the Golan Heights as a buffer zone.

Syria’s neighbors and European countries – which host millions of Syrian refugees – will be watching closely to see if the country can find stability or descend back into violent chaos.

Iran

Iran’s powerful network of regional alliances has expanded, leaving the country vulnerable — and potentially an incentive — to build nuclear weapons.

Once seen as one of the most influential countries in the Middle East, Iran has seen a dramatic decline in turnover over the past 15 months. It has effectively lost its once-existing “axis of resistance,” the network of partnerships it used to counter the influence of the United States and Israel.

Close ally Hezbollah is now too weak to pose a serious threat to Israel. And with Mr. al-Assad ousted from Syria, Iran has lost influence in a country that provided it with a vital supply line for weapons and militants.

The red lines that once kept the region from an all-out war have been erased: Iran and Israel launched direct airstrikes against each other after Israel killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was a guest in Tehran.

It is not clear where Tehran will leave. A weakened Iranian government could be forced to dismantle its decades-old nuclear program. US officials have warned that Iran may only need a few weeks to enrich uranium to bomb grade.