China’s shrinking population is causing problems for its economy. Here’s why – national
China’s population shrank for a third year in a row last year, its government said on Friday, pointing to further demographic challenges for the world’s second most populous country, which is now facing both an aging population and a shortage of older people.
In the year By the end of 2024, China’s population will be 1.408 billion, a decrease of 1.39 million compared to last year.
The figures, released by the government in Beijing, follow a global trend, where birth rates are declining, particularly in East Asia, such as Japan, South Korea and other countries. Three years ago, China joined Japan and much of Eastern Europe among other countries whose populations are shrinking.
The reasons are similar in many respects: the high cost of living is causing young people to forgo or refrain from marriage and childbearing while pursuing higher education and careers. While people are living longer, this is not enough to keep up with the new birth rate.
Countries like China, which allow very little immigration, are particularly vulnerable.
China is one of the world’s most populous countries, withstanding invasions, floods and other natural disasters to sustain a population rich in rice in the south and wheat in the north. After World War II ended and the Communist Party came to power in 1949, after tens of millions died in the Great Leap Forward to revolutionize agriculture and industry, large families reappeared and the population doubled in three decades. The cultural revolution that followed a few years later.
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After the end of the Cultural Revolution and the death of leader Mao Zedong, Communist bureaucrats became concerned that the country’s population was becoming increasingly self-sufficient and implemented the “one-child policy.” Although not a law, women had to ask for permission to give birth, and violators could face forced late-term abortions and birth control procedures, heavy fines, and the denial of their child’s identification number, effectively rendering them non-citizens. .
Rural China, where male selection is particularly strong and where two children are still ostensibly allowed, has been the focus of government efforts, where women have been forced to provide proof of their periods and buildings have been emblazoned with slogans such as “The smaller the children, the better.” children”
The government wanted to eliminate the abortion of female babies, but because abortion was legal and readily available, people operating illegal sonogram machines had a good business.
With millions of boys born for every 100 girls, the biggest reason for China’s sex ratio, this has created social unrest among China’s army of bachelors. Friday’s report put the gender disparity at 104.34 men for every 100 women, although neutral groups put the ratio much higher.
A further concern for the government is the sharply falling birthrate, with China’s total population expected to decline for the first time in decades by 2023, and China becoming the most populous in the same year as India. A rapidly aging population, a shrinking workforce, a shrinking consumer market and out-migration are putting the system under increasing pressure.
While spending on the military and flashy infrastructure continues to rise, China’s already fragile social security system is straining, with more and more Chinese refusing to pay into an underfunded pension system.
Already more than one fifth of the population is aged 60 and over, the official figure is 310.3 million or 22% of the total population. In the year By 2035, this number is predicted to exceed 30%, prompting changes in the official retirement age, one of the lowest in the world. With fewer students, some open schools and kindergartens are being converted into care facilities for the elderly.
Such developments are lending some credence to the superstition that China, now the world’s second-largest economy but battered by major headwinds, “gets old before it gets rich.”
Government incentives, including cash payments for having up to three children and financial support for household expenses, had only temporary effects.
Meanwhile, China continues its transition to an urban society, with 10 million more people moving to urban areas, a 67 percent increase over last year.
& Copy 2025 Canadian Press