Cargo volume fell in December, and rates are getting stronger
December data from Cash Information Systems showed a sharp drop in freight volumes as costs fell slightly, indicating that freight rates were higher for the month. Heavy freight rates continued to improve from August cycle lows, according to a report on Tuesday.
Cargo volumes handled by the Cass Freight Index were down 7.3% from November and down 6.5% year over year. Not even including the typical seasonal dip from November to December, the index lost 3.1%, erasing November’s 2.8% sequential gain.
This is the highest y/y decline for shipments since January 2024 and the lowest index reading since June 2020. However, there was some noise during the month. The midweek holidays may have exacerbated the slowdown. Also, some shippers have been pulling forward shipments throughout the fall to avoid potential overcapacity. Ship worker strike It’s January 15.
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They are sizes. to a slow start So is January, but winter storms are widespread and some decisions on trade policy remain before Monday’s inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.
The Cass Freight Index is truck-centric, with more than half of the cost associated with freight. Less than trucking, railroads and freight carriers make up most of the rest.
“Ongoing capacity increases are putting pressure on the labor market,” the report said. Cass’s January forecast calls for a rate cut of 6%, assuming normal seasonal trends.
The index is down 4.1% after falling 5.5% in 2024.
Sonar: Contract load acceptable noise index for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The index measures cargo volumes received in the contract and excludes rejected bids. To learn more about SONAR, Click here.
SONAR: Outbound Bid Rejection Index b 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line).. A proxy for trucking capacity, the outbound tender rejection index, shows the number of shipments being rejected by carriers. The current bid decline has exceeded the depressed levels seen in January 2024 and January 2023 and is approaching market equilibrium. To learn more about SONAR, Click here.
The freight costs index, which captures total freight costs including fuel, fell 2.6% (seasonally adjusted 0.5%) in December and was down 3.4% y/y. Diesel prices fell by approximately 12 percent during the month (down 1 percent sequentially).
Disaggregating load change from cost change shows that actual load volume is likely to rise by 3.3% y/y in the month. This is the first y/y rate increase since November 2022.
The estimated price index is expected to be positive y/y in January and throughout 2025.
Following a 19% decline in 2023, the cost index closed at 11% y/y in 2024. It was 38% and 23% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.
The Truckload Linehaul Index, which excludes fuel and surcharges, rose for the fourth consecutive month in December, up 1.2% sequentially. The 0.4% y/y decline is the smallest since late 2022.
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