Can Trump make NATO allies spend more on defense?
U.S. President Donald Trump attends a meeting with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of the NATO summit in Watford, London, Britain, December 3, 2019.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
As US President Donald Trump seeks to right a major political and economic wrong, the thorny issue of NATO’s defense spending could quickly return to the international front.
Trump’s relationship with the Western military alliance has been strained since his first term as president, with the Republican leader repeatedly criticizing NATO member states for failing to meet a 2014 target to spend at least 2 percent of GDP each year on defense.
Trump said the debate over military spending — and Trump’s perception that NATO members are overly dependent on the U.S. for their security — would be back on the agenda ahead of his second term, saying NATO’s 32 member states should contribute. More to the defense.
I think NATO should have 5% (of their GDP as a NATO contribution target). He said in January. He refused to remove military force to seize the Panama Canal or the territory of Greenland, saying in a press conference that “they all have the potential, but not by 5%, but by 2%.” NATO member Denmark
Defense spending among NATO members has increased significantly since Trump was last in office. In the year In 2018, the White House leader’s frustrations with the military led to only six member states meeting their GDP targets.
On the other hand, According to NATO data, 23 members have met the 2 percent target. In the year A few will exceed that limit by 2024 – such as Poland, Estonia, the US, Latvia and Greece – while major economic powers including Canada, Spain and Italy are among those below the contribution limit.
No NATO member has reached the 5% target suggested by Trump, including Washington under former Joe Biden administration.
Polish President Andrzej Duda fully supports Trump’s call for higher spending at NATO, telling CNBC on Wednesday that it is “absolutely impossible” for Europe to return to Cold War-era defense spending to defend against Russia and its expansionist foreign policy.
“If we want to defend against this – and we Poles are determined – we will spend 5% of GDP on defense this year. We know we have to modernize our armed forces, we have to be strong and we have to deliver,” CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. It is a real obstacle.
Perhaps given its border with war-torn Ukraine, Poland spends the highest GDP on defense compared to other NATO members. NATO 2024 estimates Last year, Warsaw spent 4.12 percent of GDP on defense.
New leader, old problems?
Dutch former prime minister Mark Rutte has only been in office for a few months as NATO secretary general, but he has repeatedly called on member states to increase defense spending.
He said that the priority is to help backward countries reach the 2 percent goal.
“Fortunately, thanks to Trump for the first time, we improved defense spending. … But we all have to get to 2%,” Steve Sedgwick told CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday.
Countries that have not yet reached the important target “must reach 2% in the coming months. It must be done this year,” Rutte said, explaining why Dutch defense spending was so much below the NATO target. When he was in office.
The outgoing Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, He spoke to the media on the first day of the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 11, 2023.
Odd Anderson | Getty Images
Rutte said that increasing defense contributions is not impossible, saying that European countries can shave pension, health and social security costs or increase taxes to increase defense spending.
“Finally, this is a rich place, in Europe we have (an) incredible amount of wealth… so on defense spending, we can do this,” he said.
Domestic spending priorities – with European countries facing high food and energy costs – but regional governments have limited their willingness to increase funding for defense and security.
Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof told CNBC on Wednesday that spending 5 percent of the national GDP on defense is a tall order.
“I think it’s going to be very, very difficult. And if I look at the impact of such increases, that’s almost impossible. I think the discussion about defense spending needs to be negotiated and discussed from a strategic point of view. (We have to). Decide) where we want to be with NATO… And decide what kind of money we’re going to put in,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy.
Cost limits
Sweden’s finance minister, Elisabeth Svantesen, has said that she needs to balance the need for higher defense spending against the need for economic growth, which remains a challenge across Europe.
“It’s a very strong discussion about how much[should be spent on defense]2% or 5% (of GDP). But the question, in my view, is what do we do. It’s a question of growth to defend ourselves and have a strong NATO,” she told CNBC in Davos on Wednesday. Partner Dan Murphy said.
“I am the finance minister … it depends on growth. First of all, we need growth in Europe, then we need to know what we can do with military spending,” she said.
In the year Sweden, which joined NATO as a new member in 2024, announced last year that it plans to raise defense spending to 2.4 percent of GDP by 2025 and 2.6 percent of economic output by 2028.
Svantesen argued that Trump’s view on the importance of NATO’s top defense spending is fair “because we have to do more in Europe”, but that some member states have not even met the 2% target and NATO countries “are even bigger and bigger”. An economy bigger than Sweden” had to do more.
Spain is likely to be the target of Trump’s wrath. European Commission 3% expansion forecast For the country’s economy last year, however, Spain has earmarked just 1.28 percent of its GDP for security in 2024.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez defended Madrid’s record, telling CNBC in Davos that the country has worked hard to increase its defense spending.
“I am sure, Spain is very committed to achieving the goal of 2% of GDP in defense spending, but I would also say that in the last 10 years, we have also increased our total defense spending by 70%,” he said on Wednesday. . “If we take these figures in absolute terms, we can say that Spain is 10.Th He has made a significant contribution to NATO.”