The dollar index and Treasury yields fell on Friday as the non-farm payrolls report and risk assets benefited from the Palisades fires. Create a threat to the insurance sector and some P&C companies.
BTC fell by 2%, changing hands in the key support zone of $90,000 and $93,000, with alternative cryptocurrencies posting big losses as usual. ETH dropped to its lowest since December 21st and risk concerns clouded XRP’s bleak technical outlook (see TA section). Whales may have stocked up. XRP on the weekend of South Korea-based Upbit. AI Coins is the worst performing sub-sector in the last 24 hours. In traditional markets, futures linked to the S&P 500 opened negative alongside lower volatility in the British pound and emerging market currencies.
The sense of risk, however, did not stop Michael Saylor from hinting at the possibility of another Bitcoin buy when he shared an update on the MicroStrategy Bitcoin Buy Tracker. If it throws courage in the negative market sentiment, it is another story. BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said: “The purchase of the company last Monday for almost 100 million dollars, which had some impact on the market, but highlights the continued interest of the company.”
All other things being equal, the risk of BTC losing the support zone seems high, as some investment banks believe that the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle is over, and the Bank of America suggests that the price may rise. In some viewersThe deal drops the price to $70,000, followed by a renewed lineup.
Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average of the Coinbase-Binance BTC price differential, which is capable of identifying major price spikes, has fallen to its lowest level since at least 2019, a sign of weak government demand.
In the near term, the crypto market may focus on the January 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump and the ongoing FTX claim distributions, according to Coinbase Institutional.
January 13: Solayer (LAYER) “Season 1” Airdrop instant For Participants, Liquidity Providers and Partner Ecosystem Users.
January 15: Derive (DRV) to create and distribute new tokens in the token generation event.
January 15 Mintlayer version 1.0.0 release. The mainnet update introduces Atomic Swap, which enables native BTC cross-chain swapping.
January 16, 3:00 am: Trading for Sonic token (S) is about to start on Binance, featuring pairs such as S/USDT, S/BTC and S/BNB.
January 17: Main listing of SOLV, the native token of the SOLV protocol.
Macro
January 13, 2:00 PM: US Treasury releases December 2024 Monthly Treasury Statement. Monthly Budget Deficit Est. $62B compared to the previous $367B
January 14, 8:30 am: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases December 2024 PPI.
PPI MoM Est 0.3% from pre. 0.4%
Core PPI MoM est. 0.3% of pre. 0.2%
Core PPI YoY. 3.7% from pre. 3.4%
PPI yoi. 3.4% from pre. 3%
Jan 14, 8:55 am: US Redbook YoY for the week ending Jan 11. 6.8%
January 16, 8:30 am: US Department of Labor It will be released Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ending January 11. 214 k from previous. 201 K.
January 17, 5:00 am: Eurostat releases Eurozone inflation data for December 2024.
MOM Final Estimate of Inflation Rate. 0.4% against previous -0.3%
YoY Final Estimates of Core Inflation. 2.7% from pre. 2.7%
Final estimate of inflation YoY. 2.4% from pre. 2.2%
Administrative voices and calls
Aave community proposes to adjust the loan rate for GHO stablecoin from 10.50% to 9.00%.
Aavegotchi DAO has an active vote to improve ETH’s sales ladder parameters due to ETH’s “significant underperformance”.
January 14: Arbitrum ( ARB ) to open a 0.93% floating rate offering worth $70.65 million.
January 15: Connex (CONX) floats 376% to open its offering of $84.5 million.
January 18: Ondo (Ondo) 134% to open a floating offer of $2.19 billion.
token launchers
No major tokens are scheduled today.
January 15: DRV launches, 5% of offering goes to SNA shareholders. January 16: Solayer (LAYER) will follow a five-month point farm to host a token sale.
January 17: Solv Protocol (SOLV) should be listed on Binance.
AI agent tokens have undergone a deep correction, with ai16z now trading at $1.02, down more than 60% from its all-time high on January 2. Virtual Protocol Native Token (virtual) is down 16% over the last 24-hours. It is now trading at $2.40 after rising to $5.04 on January 2 to add to its recent bearish trend.
NFT Project Azuki has announced the launch of ANIME, a Japanese cartoon themed token that will distribute 50.5% of its token supply to the Azuki community. Azuki employees and consultants will receive 15.62% of the supply through the vetting schedule.
As Etena’s trading model started to fall into neutral territory, Etena’s ENA token fell by 11.4% in the last 24 hours. Athena still offers an 11% yield on the stablecoin, although it’s unclear how long that rate will last if the currency continues to decline.
As Ether whales began loading ETN at a loss, one trader sold 10,070 ETH for $33 million at a loss of $1 million, and his wallet still holds $45 million, according to chain data. Lookonchain It shows.
Persistent funding rates for TRX, AVAX, SUI and TON have reversed negative, indicating a change in position.
Front-end risk reversal shows options for BTC and ETH hedge options that match the risk-off sentiment in the markets. Screen traders bought in BTC at $92k, $90k and $87k.
There is a known negative distributor gamma in the $90k and $93k range, which means these components can trade into the hedge book in the direction of the market, strengthening the move. The same variable exists between $3.2K and $3,450. In the ETH market.
BTC and ETH DVOLs, which measure 30-day expected price changes, remain in their familiar ranges for the month.
BTC is down 3.12% to $91,392.04 as of 4 pm ET Friday (24hrs: -2.67%)
ETH is down 4.78% at $3,109.45 (24h: -4.05%)
CoinDesk 20 down 2.15% to 3,310.23 (24hrs: -3.08%)
Ether stock yield decreased by 16 bps to 2.97%
BTC funding rate on Binance is -0.0149% (-16.27% annualized).
DXY rose 0.35% at 110.04.
Gold was down 0.13% at $2,705.00/oz
Silver fell 0.84% to $30.83/oz
The Nikkei 225 closed down -1.05% at 39,190.40
The Hang Seng closed down -1% at 18,874.14
The FTSE was down 0.25% at 82,27.71
The euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.92% at 4,931.47.
The DJIA closed down -1.63% to 41,938.45 on Friday.
The S&P 500 closed down -1.54% at 5,827.04
The Nasdaq closed down -1.63% at 19,161.63
The S&P/TSX composite index closed down -1.22% at 24,767.70
S&P 40 Latin America closed -1.31% at 2,181.96
The US 10-year Treasury rose 2 bps at 4.79%
E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.78% to 5,820.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures were down 1.18% at 20,767.25.
E-mini Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 0.48% at 42,022.00.
BTC dominance: 58.39
Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.033
Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 775 EH/s
Hashprice (spot): $54.6
Total payouts: 4.89 BTC / $462,582
CME Futures Open Interest: 175,380 BTC
BTC in gold price: 34.5 oz
BTC vs Gold Market Rate: 9.82%
XRP broke out of a descending triangle pattern on Friday, signaling the resumption of the broader rally from early November lows.
However, BTC Macro’s risk-off action pushed XRP back to the breakout point.
Watch out for a potential move back into the triangle as failed breakouts are strong bearish reversal signals.
MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed Friday at $327.91 (-1.14%), down 4.95% at $311.67 in premarket trading.
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $258.78 (-0.47%), down 4.42% from $247.34 in pre-market.
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$27.07 (+0.82%).
Mara Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.86 (-2.62%), down 4.59% from $17.04 in pre-market.
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.00 (-0.17%), down 5.25% at $11.37 in pre-market.
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed unchanged at $14.04, down 3.49% from $13.55 in premarket trading.
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed unchanged at $10.09, down 5.05% at $9.58 in premarket trading.
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $23.11 (-0.17%), down 4.41% from $22.09 in pre-market.
Semler Scientific ( SMLR ): closed at $51.36 (+2.33%), down 7.03% from $47.75 in premarket.
Exit Movement (EXOD): closed unchanged at $37.77, down 9.98% from $34.00 in the premarket.
Singapore followed Taiwan and France in banning Polymarket. (CoinDesk): Over the weekend, Singapore banned access to Polymarket, labeling it an unlicensed gambling site. This follows similar actions in Taiwan and France, due to the growing global investigation of the platform.
AI Agent Tokens correction from the steep market (The Block): AI Agent tokens fell in the last week, AI16Z fell from $2.26 to $1.10 and GOAT fell from $0.5 to $0.33, while Bitcoin remained at the $95,000 level.
The global bond tantrum is a tense and worrying start to the new year. (Bloomberg): U.S. Treasury yields are nearing 5% amid strong economic growth, persistent inflation and rising government debt, rising international borrowing costs and reduced demand for riskier investments such as stocks.
The US dollar has hit a 2-year high in relative terms after strong US data (Financial Times): On Monday, the US dollar index rose to a two-year high following Friday’s strong US jobs report. Oil prices increased, Brent reached 81 dollars and WTI hit 77.90 dollars, due to the new Russian sanctions.
