America’s new ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy could cause lasting damage.

Open the White House Watch newspaper for free

Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

The writer is chief executive of the New America think tank and contributing editor of the FT.

For nearly two decades, China has adhered to the “peaceful rise” doctrine developed by government adviser and scholar Zheng Bijan. He emphasized China’s desire to grow in power and prosperity by integrating with the international system without creating threats to other countries.

The strategy succeeded: from the 1990s to the mid-2010s, China’s GDP and global influence increased dramatically. But Xi Jinping has changed course. Since 2017, he has started the methods known as “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy”. Chinese diplomats became more determined to protect China’s interests. And within a few years the Chinese government had succeeded in undoing the good will that had earned it years of peaceful uprising.

In the year In 2023, Xi backtracked. But this self-interested advance in China has fueled lingering mistrust around the world and convinced many of China’s allies to hedge their bets on deepening ties with the US.

Now US President-elect Donald Trump and his merry band of tech titans have embraced their brand of Wild West diplomacy with a dose of Silicon Valley swagger. Its hallmarks are high self-confidence, disregard for any rules, and a willingness to compromise with anyone as long as it furthers one’s immediate self-interest.

Trump himself lives in a world of self-absorbed superpowers that find a ready echo in his new friends from California. With the people who rose to power on the backs of technological innovation and the unimaginable wealth, they assume that America’s supremacy is greater than the advanced technology sector of the US economy. It’s the future, and they control it.

Such an attitude seems certain to create regular incidents and minor crises with other countries. But from the Chinese experience, the issue is not this or that anger, but the gradual accumulation of statements and actions that affect the internal politics of other countries and change alliances accordingly.

As Xi found out, Beijing’s clamor and assertion of ownership strengthened the hand of China hawks in the US and the EU and raised suspicions among China’s former supporters. The long-standing deterioration in relations between Washington and Beijing is not only Trump’s last term in office, but also a major shift in attitudes among former Obama officials who joined the Biden administration and built on many of Trump’s opponents. – Chinese policies.

In particular, the push for American technological supremacy emboldens those in other countries who want to challenge the dominance of large American technology companies. The EU has been fighting the power and reach of those companies for more than a decade. The new Trump administration’s refusal to deploy meta-artificial intelligence in the EU is likely to force a showdown that will provide the impetus needed to create integrated European technology and defense markets.

In countries such as Mexico, India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia and Indonesia, whose current leaders are friendly with Trump, Washington’s relentless push to open markets and improve trade alienates American companies. Domestic entrepreneurs and exporters.

The US, like China during the Wolf Warrior years, is notorious for breaking and breaking domestic and international laws. Demanding that everyone “pay” for US military protection may sound like a global extortion racket.

Middle powers, now able to play a more independent role on the global stage than they did in the 20th century, are reluctant to become supporters of the US-China rivalry. Trump insists on putting America first rather than pursuing his own national interests.

The George W. Bush administration has run away from international laws and procedures in favor of a “coalition of the willing”. Since then, Republican unilateralists have followed Democratic multilateralists, who have spent years repairing the damage to America’s international relations and forging new informal alliances and coalitions.

However, this cycle has increased trust and confidence in America’s integrity as a partner and ally. Add in a lot of arrogance and insults, and the damage done in the next era of American wolf warrior diplomacy could be permanent.