Trump’s deal gives China some breathing room.

Until the first salvos, President Donald J. Trump’s threat of 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China’s role in the U.S. fentanyl crisis could be interpreted as a boost in Beijing.

Not only did Mr. Trump drop the 60 percent tariffs on key Chinese goods he promised during the campaign, but he also confirmed signs that the president is willing to negotiate with China. In his first two days in office, Mr Trump has also floated the idea of ​​linking tariffs to TikTok’s fate. He said he expects to be invited to China for a visit.

Mr. Trump’s willingness to compromise with China could give Beijing the time and space it needs to meet its most pressing needs. That includes trying to turn around a stagnant economy and ease tensions with trading partners, with China’s record trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion. She has also been working to repair relations with Beijing. America’s allies like Japan Attempting to weaken the security alliance created by the Biden administration to contain China.

Moving forward on those fronts will help China strengthen its position in the superpower rivalry with the United States. Beijing ultimately wants the Trump administration to recalibrate the relationship. The U.S. has called on Beijing to end support for the self-governing island of Taiwan and accept China as an equal by lifting restrictions on Chinese technology imports to the United States.

Analysts say Beijing may be looking to contain Mr. Trump over the sale of TikTok, a crackdown on leading fentanyl producers or the trade deal Mr. Trump and China’s supreme leader, Xi Jinping, signed in 2020.

“Economically, it would be in Washington’s and Beijing’s interests to make a false grand bargain that would meet the immediate political needs of both sides without making too many sacrifices.” Studies.

It is unclear where Mr. Trump, who considers unpredictability a signature weapon, stands on either of these issues. The US president has surrounded himself with advisers who have opposing views on China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a Senate confirmation hearing last week that China is the “biggest threat” to American prosperity. But one of Mr Trump’s billionaire advisers, Tesla owner Elon Musk, has extensive business interests in China and has sided with Beijing on international disputes (such as Taiwan).

Mr Trump’s early days have highlighted early differences between the Biden and Trump administrations in dealing with China. While the previous administration chose sanctions and alliances to shape the global landscape around China, the Trump White House appears to be considering tariffs as part of a carrot-and-stick strategy to achieve its domestic “America First” goals.

As long as it is open to China to avoid an all-out trade war, it is thought that China will accept the new approach, at least for the time being. Its economy is struggling with an asset crisis, rising government debt and weak consumer spending.

China’s economic challenges mean its bargaining power is weaker than it was under the first Trump administration. But Beijing now has more weapons to fight back.

In recent months, China has shown a willingness to take new measures, including restricting American access to valuable minerals, investigating US companies such as PVH for alleged boycotts of Xinjiang cotton, and the Ukrainian military’s supply of US drones.

“China is ready to go either way. They are ready for war or negotiation,” said Mr. Kennedy, trying to gauge the mood during his two-week stay in China after the US presidential election.

The first big test of where US-China relations will go in Trump’s second term will focus on the future of the Chinese social media app TikTok.

On Monday, Mr. Trump signed an executive order delaying the forum’s ban. Beijing then proposed that it must approve a deal to split ownership of the app with the US regulator or impose tariffs of up to 100 percent.

“If Trump can make a deal that addresses national security concerns while the app is alive, he will be hailed as a hero by young voters,” said Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a research firm. Washington, TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, “will not bend, and may blame Beijing, framing them as an obstacle to growth.”

A deal on TikTok could be accepted in China. It is not a strategic move that China considers to make its country more powerful and self-sufficient, such as AI chips and supercomputing capabilities. China in 2010 She has opposed the sale of TikTok in 2023, but has appeared to soften her stance recently, saying any business acquisition must comply with “market principles” and “Chinese laws and regulations,” according to a Foreign Ministry spokesperson.

China has also tried to remind Mr Trump of China’s geopolitical activities. On Tuesday, Mr. Xi held a video call with two autocrats allied to Russian President Vladimir Putin as they fought off Western pressure. Mr Xi said they should “strengthen strategic coordination, support each other and safeguard their legitimate interests”.

The call underscored Beijing’s influence over Russia as Mr. Trump expressed interest in ending the war in Ukraine. Separately, Mr Trump’s inauguration showed an enduring partnership between Mr Xi and Mr Putin despite the presence of Chinese Vice President Han Zheng.

“Xi wants to cover all his bases,” said Yun San, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “China wants to show Trump that Russia is still in its corner.”

For now, Mr. Xi has tried to strike a positive note with Mr. Trump, expressing his hope for a “good start” to relations between the countries under the new administration.

But Mr. Trump has taken a hard line on China’s concerns, urging caution in the Taiwan situation. In the year In 2016, Mr Trump called Tsai Ing-wen, then president of Taiwan, to condemn China.

Some of Mr. Trump’s decisions, though, are playing to reshape the global system to give Beijing a bigger say in China’s broader global interests. Mr. Trump’s move to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization and the Paris accords, the United Nations climate accord, and his willingness to exclude allies such as Mexico and Canada with 25 percent tariffs are arguably in China’s long-term interests.

Still, Chinese analysts say Beijing is proceeding with extreme caution. As Mr. Trump’s first term begins, China feels burned. A year later, the relationship began to direct steadily since diplomatic relations were normalized in the 1970s.

Mr. Trump, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, said: “They want to try to solve problems in a non-confrontational way at first, but he will definitely negotiate more, so we have to be mentally prepared.” Shanghai

Siyi Zhao Research contributed.